The S&P 500 peaked at 6,144 in February 2025. If the U.S. economy suffers a recession, the index could drop 31% to 4,239, provided its performance aligns with the historical average. That implies 23% downside from the current level. In short, history says the stock market would indeed crash if President Trump's tariffs cause a recession.

This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s,” he wrote, placing the blame squarely on his predecessor. “I didn’t take over until January 20th.” He added: “Our Count