Saudi Arabia is boosting oil output, pressuring U.S. shale producers and shaking markets. Here's how this move could impact breakeven prices, rig counts, and investors.

Oil prices have begun rebounding amid signs of easing U.S.-China tensions and a surprise dip in U.S. inflation.

Saudi Arabia needs oil at more than $90 a barrel to balance its budget, the International Monetary Fund estimates. Goldman Sachs in mid-April warned that Brent crude at $62 a barrel — its price forecast at the time — could more than double the kingdom's 2024 budget deficit of $30.8 billion.

Saudi Arabia has signalled it is willing to enter a painful price war to assert dominance over other oil producers, but worsening global economic conditions mean the kingdom's standard playbook might be less effective this time around.

Saudi Arabia has increased the price of its flagship crude grade loading for Asia in June, even as OPEC+ decided to continue easing production cuts.

The group agreed to raise output in June, a sign that Saudi Arabia and its allies appear to be weary of cutting output and may be trying to appease President Trump, who has pushed for lower prices.

The oil market appears to be telling Saudi Arabia that its shift to pumping more oil after five years of cutting output was well timed.

President Donald Trump arrived in Saudi Arabia, the first leg of his three-nation visit to the Middle East this we